Some troubling polls–will Democrats gain less than expected? (with my Senate rankings)

The UNH poll (not one of our favorites) shows a major tightening in the NH Senate race.  Even with a more GOP-friendly sample, Sununu has gained among independents.  And Carol Shea-Porter

still trails Jeb Bradley; Paul Hodes is under 50%.  And the batch of internal polls in House races isn’t all that great news either, even most of them would fill several salt shakers.

And Udall is in a tight race in Colorado, unable to pull away.  The Rasmussen Congressional tracker has tightened from 48-34 Dem to just 45-36 in four weeks.

Has the energy issue given the GOP new life?  I’m just wondering if the next Congress has fewer Democrats in it, not more.

Anyway, here are my top ten Senate rankings for late July, rated from most likely to flip to least likely:

1a.  Virginia

1b.  New Mexico

3.  Alaska–Stevens in big trouble–will the GOP

find a replacement?

4.  Colorado–As Obama goes, so goes this race.

5.  New Hampshire–It’s not a four point race, but it’s getting there–Shaheen just may not have “it.”

6.  Louisiana–Very close and may depend on black turnout.

7.  Oregon–Merkley gaining, but so uncharismatic.

8.  Mississippi B–Again, this could come down

to turnout.

9.  Minnesota–Who’s right, Rasmussen or SUSA?

10. North Carolina–Dole a stiff, but Hagen really close both the money gap and the poll gap?

11 thoughts on “Some troubling polls–will Democrats gain less than expected? (with my Senate rankings)”

  1. while the margin may be close, the probability is relatively certain.  When polls show a candidate up by single digits, but consistently up by single digits in poll after poll, I can reasonably conclude that that candidate is up.  And by this reasoning, in both cases, I believe the Democratic candidate is up, and is likely to win if the election were held today.

  4. We are still in the middle of summer though and I suspect that as gas prices decline as we head into the fall the issue may level out. But it is a challenge that needs addressing. And no there won’t be less Dems in congress. Thats ridiculous. The national committees have hardly started spending their cash advantage yet and that will make a difference when it kicks in.  

  7. that doesn’t rule out picking up 10 seats, or only picking up 3-4…

    At this point, I would be shocked/stunned/ worried if there were 6-8 Republican seats where the Democratic candidate was up by double digits. With the exception of the Rick Santorums or the world, incumbents don’t go down by those kinds of margins — even in a wave year (for example, the Republicans in 80 or 94), most Senate pick-ups were quite close.

    Anyone expecting races like Mississippi B, Minnesota, Oregon, etc to break out early for the Democratic candidate is overly optimistic — these will all be races decided by less than 5 points, not blow-outs in either direction. The campaign (money, advertising, grassroots, turnout, coattails, gaffes, etc) are what will decide most of these races, and accurately predicting them now based on mid-summer polls is inherently inaccurate.

    With that said, he would be my assessment of where the competitive races are today:

    Solid D – (+2) Virginia, New Mexico

    Likely D – (+2) Colorado, New Hampshire

    Leaning D – Louisiana

    Toss-up = (3) Alaska (almost leaning D), Mississippi B, Oregon

    Leaning R – (1) Minnesota

    Likely R (but still very much in play) – (4)  Georgia (if Martin wins nomination), Kentucky, Maine, North Carolina

    Solid R (but D upset still possible) – (4)  Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Texas

    With 12 seats in play (and potentially up to 16 of the great things happen), that still means a great Democratic election day would start at picking up 5 and is extremely unlikely to go above 8. But if a wave crashes, it can go much higher.

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